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How many Black Friday ads to make — CTC's BFCM creative volume research

CTC's research across its Meta accounts — BFCM-specific ads take only ~30% of holiday spend (evergreen ~70%), October ads out-spend Black Friday ads by 50% over Q4 so don't sacrifice them, diminishing returns don't arrive until ~1,500 BF ads (one brand went $5K→$55K/day), make at least 2x last year's count, and the production order frames → catalogs → statics → video remixes → new creator content.

Updated 2026-10-24·1 source·bfcmblack-fridaycreative-volumemeta-adsq4ecommerceframescatalog-ads

How many Black Friday ads to make

TL;DR

  • Evergreen carries the holiday. BFCM-specific ads drive only ~30% of Meta spend in the period, and evergreen ads carry ~70%.
  • Don’t pause October production for November. October ads spend 50% more across Q4 than Black Friday ads do, even though BF ads spend faster in their first 14 days.
  • Nobody makes enough BF ads. One brand launched 1,500 BF ads on one day and went from $5K to $55K a day, and it still only ranked around the top 5% of brands at its spend.
  • Diminishing returns arrive late. CTC’s model shows marginal spend still growing until ~1,500 ads. Make at least double last year’s count, and maximise rather than optimise.
  • Production order: frames on existing ads → catalogs with sale creative → statics with the offer overlaid → video remixes of past winners → new BF creator content if you have capacity.

Details

Why this research. Before October, every client asked Joy Sharma whether to sacrifice October ads to make more November ads, and how many to make.1

October ads still matter. BF ads concentrate spend into roughly their first two days. October ads spend less than half as much in their first 14 days, but over October–December they spend 50% more than BF ads. Over a three-month horizon, October creative returns more.1 In the BFCM window, BF-specific ads are only ~30% of account spend, and evergreen carries ~70%.2

But make far more BF ads. CTC compared brands at ~$100K, $300K, $500K, $1M and $2M of spend.23

  • Brands that say they make “a lot” usually mean ~200. The case brand made 1,500 BF ads across two years and lifted spend from $5K to $55K a day when they launched in one day.3
  • Even that brand sat only around the top 5% of brands spending ~$55K a day.4
  • CTC’s “marginal frontier” model for BF ads shows the point where more ads stop adding incremental spend doesn’t come until ~1,500 ads. For one brand, 1,000 ads predict ~$77K/day of spend and 1,500 predict ~$93K/day.56
  • That’s 50% more ads for ~$20K a day more spend. Joy argues no other time of year lets 500 extra ads buy that much spend. Customers acquired then also buy again in the Christmas and New Year sales within 60 days.6

Anonymised examples (host Richard Gaffin reading the chart). Brand C went from 84 to 359 ads and from $118K to $528K of November Meta spend (BF-specific ads 12 → 22). Brand B went from ~1,500–1,600 to 2,000 ads and $209K → $319K.7 For Brand D, Joy notes a ~50% spend rise needed BF ads to go from 183 to 972. Ads scale sub-linearly, but in BFCM the goal is “to take all the dollars available”, as long as the extra contribution beats the cost.89

Production hierarchy.910

  1. Frames: the offer framed around existing evergreen ads. These are the highest spenders and easiest to make work.
  2. Catalog ads with sale creative.
  3. Statics: text-based and product-based, with the BF offer and strong headlines over existing product imagery.
  4. Video remixes: past winners with the offer added on top.
  5. New BF-themed creator content, only if capacity remains.

Richard sums it up: new holiday-themed ads are the least important. Evergreen winners plus the offer are the most important.11

Disagreements / caveats

See also

Footnotes

  1. The BFCM Prep Checklist: From Least to Most Impact @ 15:59 — Joy Sharma ↩ ↩2

  2. The BFCM Prep Checklist: From Least to Most Impact @ 17:24 — Joy Sharma ↩ ↩2

  3. The BFCM Prep Checklist: From Least to Most Impact @ 18:16 — Joy Sharma ↩ ↩2

  4. The BFCM Prep Checklist: From Least to Most Impact @ 19:20 — Joy Sharma ↩

  5. The BFCM Prep Checklist: From Least to Most Impact @ 20:07 — Joy Sharma ↩

  6. The BFCM Prep Checklist: From Least to Most Impact @ 21:03 — Joy Sharma ↩ ↩2

  7. The BFCM Prep Checklist: From Least to Most Impact @ 22:07 — Richard Gaffin ↩

  8. The BFCM Prep Checklist: From Least to Most Impact @ 23:42 — Joy Sharma ↩

  9. The BFCM Prep Checklist: From Least to Most Impact @ 24:47 — Joy Sharma ↩ ↩2

  10. The BFCM Prep Checklist: From Least to Most Impact @ 25:35 — Joy Sharma ↩

  11. The BFCM Prep Checklist: From Least to Most Impact @ 25:35 — Richard Gaffin ↩