#incrementality

9 notes tagged “incrementality”.

• Creative economics — the median ad loses money, so cut the cost per ad (CTC's 1.3M-ad study)CTC's analysis of 1.339M Meta ads across 158 brands — the median ad is worth −$3.20 in 60-day contribution, the average +$507, and the top 5% of ads produce 73% of all value — so you can't change the odds, only the price of each "ticket"; commission-only creator programs (Tribe, Refunnel) that pay only for winners let The Normal Brand triple ad volume and double spend at the same incremental ROAS.
• Designing incrementality tests (duration, budget, CTV and brand)Practical rules for geo/holdout incrementality tests — run upper-funnel and CTV tests 4–6 weeks (two weeks shows nothing), give them enough budget not to be swamped, avoid launching into seasonality, and judge brand spend on a finance timeline.
• How last-click attribution biases channel resultsLast-click flatters low-funnel, intent-capturing channels (search, Apple Ads, Google UAC standard) and under-credits view-based ones (YouTube, CTV, chatbot ads); incrementality tests have reversed channel rankings — and platform-reported numbers are biased toward the platform.
• Is paid acquisition incremental? Organic ceilings, cannibalization and geo holdoutsOrganic-heavy apps (Replika, Solid Starts) eventually saturate their niche and find that new paid spend often cannibalizes organic; Simply measures this with geo holdouts (switch app or web campaigns off per country) and aims for "enough truth" in CAC models, not perfect attribution.
• Knowing if your ecommerce brand is winning — CTC's three pillars (source of truth, shared target, execution)Luke Austin's operating framework for ecommerce growth — one trusted source of truth joining financial, marketing, order and calendar data; one shared definition of success (contribution margin at the top, daily targets laddering down to every channel); and relentless execution through calendar, ad, email and creative workflows plus MMM/geo-holdout testing — built in that order.
• Meta audience segments — proving remarketing happens on its ownDefine engaged-audience and existing-customer segments in Meta's advertising settings, then use the audience-segment breakdown on sales campaigns to see how much budget already goes to warm people (often 10–30%+) — why separate remarketing campaigns are usually unnecessary and non-incremental, and how the breakdown underpins scaling and fatigue decisions.
• Meta's incremental attribution model — should you switch from standard?What Meta's ad-set-level "incremental" attribution model does (predicts which conversions the ad caused, and optimises for them) versus standard 7-day click / 1-day view / 1-day engaged-view, why results look worse after switching, and who should use it — Jon Loomer says most advertisers, Ben Heath says only larger advertisers with a customer base.
• The measurement stack — last-click attribution, incrementality and MMM togetherWhy app advertisers need both deterministic last-click attribution (for platform optimisation and daily decisions) and incrementality testing (for budget allocation), where MMM fits, and how to reconcile them against top-line results.
• When last-click attribution is good enough (and when to invest in incrementality)For small, performance-driven advertisers on one or two channels, last-touch attribution is often ~85% as good as experiments and better than a bad MMM; invest in incrementality tests as spend, channel count and brand effects grow.